Prepared privately for Jorge Eyed · August 2026
11816 N. Hayden Road
An acre on the Starfire fairway, a 1966 Jack Peterson design, a guest house, and no HOA. Here is exactly what the market is paying for homes like this right now — and what I believe puts the most money in your pocket rather than into a renovation you may not get back.
Before the numbers
You bought well. The question now is what to do with it.
You closed on this property on February 21, 2024 for $1,050,000 — $350 a foot on a full acre backing a golf course. That was a good buy, and the market has since confirmed it.
What I want to do here is not pitch you. I want to show you the actual closed sales inside a mile of your front door, tell you what they say your house is worth in three different conditions, and be straight with you about where renovation money stops earning its keep.
There is a real possibility that the answer is spend less than you were planning. I'd rather tell you that now than take a bigger listing six months from now that nets you less.
And since you have $1,600,000 in hand: I've modeled that offer alongside everything else, as favorably as it can honestly be modeled. It's a real option and I've treated it like one.
One small correction, because it changes the comps
The property is often described as North Scottsdale, but 11816 N. Hayden sits in the 85260 Hayden corridor between Cactus and Shea — the Sundown Ranch Estates / Scottsdale Country Club pocket.
That matters. Pricing this against North Scottsdale or DC Ranch would put us in the wrong comp set entirely. The homes that actually set your value are on Sundown Drive, 81st Street, 83rd Place and Jenan Drive — and several of them closed this spring.
Start here
The automated valuations are wrong about your house — by roughly half a million.
Redfin's algorithm currently estimates 11816 N. Hayden at $1,354,562. It is anchored on your 2024 purchase price and on square footage. It does not know what an acre on this street is worth, and it cannot see a fairway. Your $1,600,000 offer sits between that algorithm and reality — above the machine, below the market.
What the algorithm says
$1,354,562
Redfin Estimate, July 2026. Redfin's own page flags it as 19.6% below its comparable-home average of $1.68M.
What an unrenovated acre actually sold for
$1,910,000
11424 N. Sundown Dr — 3,044 sf on 1.04 acres, 1973, county records list condition as "average." Closed May 7, 2026 in 50 days.
What a renovated acre sold for
$2,350,000
11602 N. Sundown Dr — renovated, 1.01 acres, with a 682 sf casita. Closed Feb 17, 2026 at $687/sf. The closest thing to your floor plan that has traded.
This is the entire argument for a real listing strategy. A buyer who Googles your address sees $1.35M. A buyer who is shown the four acre-lot sales on Sundown Drive understands why the number starts with a 2. Which of those two buyers we get in the door is a function of how the property is priced, prepared, and presented — not of the market.
It is also the context for the offer on your desk. $1,600,000 is $310,000 below what an unrenovated acre three doors down closed at in May, in fifty days, in this same market. That doesn't make the offer bad faith — it makes it an offer written against the algorithm instead of against the comps.
Closed sales · within 1 mile · February – August 2026
What renovated homes around you are actually closing at.
I pulled every closed sale I could verify inside a mile, and split them into the two groups that matter: the acre lots in your own subdivision, and the golf-frontage homes across Hayden in Scottsdale Country Club. They tell two different stories.
Group 1 — Sundown Ranch Estates: your subdivision, your lot size
| Address | Beds/Ba | Size | Lot | Renovated | Golf | Sold | $/SF | Closed | DOM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11602 N. Sundown DrClosest profile to yours — acre + casita | 5 / 3.5 | 3,421 sf+682 casita | 1.01 ac | YesThermador, 2016 casita, solar+battery | No | $2,350,000 | $687 | Feb 17 '26 | ~25 |
| 11834 N. Sundown DrHighest $/sf verified within a mile | 4 / 3.5 | 2,834 sf | 1.00 ac | YesWaterfall stone, F&P ovens, RV garage | No | $2,190,000 | $773 | Apr 3 '26 | 9–11 |
| 11424 N. Sundown DrThe "do nothing" benchmark | — / 3 | 3,044 sf | 1.04 ac | NoRecords: condition "average" | No | $1,910,000 | ~$627 | May 7 '26 | 50 |
| 11801 N. Sundown DrBacks Starfire hole #2 — the golf precedent | 5 / 5 | 6,664 sf | 2.14 ac | PartialChef's kitchen, guest suite | Yes | $4,000,000 | $600 | Feb 27 '26 | 368 |
| 11802 N. Hayden RdYour immediate neighbor — outside window, shown for trend | 6 / 3 | 3,100 sf | 1.00 ac | No | No | $1,650,000 | ~$532 | Oct 10 '25 | — |
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Group 2 — Scottsdale Country Club: true golf frontage, but small lots
| Address | Beds/Ba | Size | Lot | Renovated | Sold | $/SF | Closed | DOM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11785 N. 83rd PlStarfire #7, saltwater pool | 5 / 5.5 | 4,280 sf | — | Unknown | $2,027,463 | ~$474 | Aug 3 '26 | — |
| 8306 E. Sunnyside DrListed $2,275,000 → closed $2,000,000 | 4 / 3 | 3,097 sf | 0.35 ac | Partial | $2,000,000 | $646 | Jun 4 '26 | ~150 |
| 12026 N. 81st St"Fully reimagined," Starfire #3 | 3 / 2.5 | 2,825 sf | 0.18 ac | Yes | $1,915,000 | $678 | Mar 12 '26 | — |
| 11905 N. 83rd PlGut-remodeled 2024, Starfire #7 — sold 2.7% OVER list | 4 / 3 | 3,097 sf | 0.34 ac | YesKitchen, baths, roof, HVAC, windows, stucco | $1,900,000 | $613 | Apr 21 '26 | — |
| 8184 E. Jenan DrMarketed as "Ultimate Luxury Remodel" | 3 / 3 | 2,793 sf | 0.21 ac | Yes | $1,775,000 | $636 | Mar 13 '26 | 152 |
| 8245 E. Jenan DrWhite oak floors, custom cabinetry | 4 / 3 | 2,624 sf | 0.17 ac | Yes | $1,630,000 | $621 | Apr 22 '26 | — |
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Read #1 — the acre is worth more than the fairway.
The two highest per-foot results within a mile were both renovated acre lots in Sundown Ranch with no golf frontage at all ($773 and $687/sf). Every pure golf-frontage sale in Scottsdale Country Club cleared lower per foot — $613 to $678 — because those homes sit on eighth-acre lots. You have both. Nobody in this window has sold both.
Read #2 — the guest house has a paid precedent.
11602 N. Sundown's 682 sf casita helped carry it to $2,350,000, the highest price in the subdivision this year on a home only 400 feet larger than yours. Your 554 sf detached guest house with its own entrance is a genuine value line item, not a footnote — and it needs to be underwritten, photographed and marketed as one.
Honest read on conditions
This is a good market to sell a great house in, and a rough one to sell an average house in.
I'm not going to tell you it's a seller's market, because it isn't. Here is what Scottsdale looks like as of this month.
(buyer-favorable)
cut price last month
ratio, Scottsdale
on market
Inventory in 85260 is up roughly 106% year over year while closed sales are down about 27%. Across the Phoenix metro, 65.6% of sales in May 2026 included a seller concession — the fourth-highest rate of any major U.S. metro.
Translation: buyers have choices and they are using them. But look back at the comp tables — the correctly-priced renovated golf home (11905 N. 83rd Pl) sold 2.7% over asking, and the renovated acre (11834 N. Sundown) went pending in nine days. The homes that overreached sat: 8306 E. Sunnyside took 150 days and a $275,000 haircut.
Your real competition right now
Three active listings within a mile you'd be selling against:
And the floor: 11225 N. Hayden — a 1,596 sf 1963 fixer on an acre across from Starfire — is asking $1,250,000. That's what the dirt alone is being tested at.
The decision
Four paths. Here's what each one actually nets you.
Every number below is modeled off your real basis of $1,050,000 plus estimated acquisition costs, real Arizona closing costs, and holding costs during the work. Fees are shown at 2.5% listing side and 2.5% buyer-broker; both are variables we'll set together, and I show you the effect of changing them further down. The offer in hand is modeled with no brokerage fee at all — the most generous possible reading of it.
| Target sale price | Money in (reno + carry) |
Cost of sale | Net at closing | Profit before tax |
Return on capital |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Path A — Take the offer in hand$1,600,000, on the table today. ~30 days out. | $1,600,000 | $2,000 | $7,844no brokerage modeled | $1,592,156 | $535,156 | 50.6%~20% annualized |
| Path B — Prep and list as-isClean, repair, stage, photograph, market properly. 45–60 days out. My recommendation. | $1,750,000 – $2,000,000 |
$16,000 – $29,000 |
$95,600 – $108,600 |
$1,654,400 – $1,891,400 |
$570,400 – $820,400 |
53% – 77%~20–29% annualized |
| Path C — Targeted renovationThe high-ROI subset only. 5–6 months. | $1,950,000 – $2,100,000 |
$196,000 – $276,000 |
$106,000 – $113,700 |
$1,844,000 – $1,986,300 |
$513,000 – $735,300 |
39% – 59%~13–20% annualized |
| Path D — Full renovationGut to the studs, top of market. 9–10 months. | $2,300,000 – $2,450,000 |
$518,000 – $668,000 |
$124,100 – $131,900 |
$2,175,900 – $2,318,100 |
$452,900 – $745,100 |
26% – 47%~8–14% annualized |
Swipe to see all columns on mobile. Profit is measured against your total invested capital (basis + acquisition costs + money in) and is before income tax and any mortgage payoff.
On the $1,600,000 offer
I modeled it as favorably as it can possibly be modeled — zero brokerage, no commission to anyone, straight to closing. It still nets you $1,592,156.
Listing it as-is at the midpoint of what comparable acreage is actually trading for nets you $1,772,911 — about $180,755 more. At the top of the as-is range it's $299,280 more. Even at the conservative bottom of the range, $1,750,000, you still clear about $62,000 more than the offer.
And that's before the obvious point: an unrenovated acre on this street closed at $1,910,000 in May. The offer is roughly $310,000 under a verified comparable sale three doors down. Whoever wrote it is not confused about value — they're hoping you are. If there's a real reason to take a fast, certain, no-contingency close, that's a legitimate reason and I'll help you paper it. But it should be a decision about speed, not about price.
The number that surprised me
When I first built this, I expected the targeted renovation to win. Once the as-is range is set where the comparable sales actually put it, it doesn't.
Every $1.00 you spend has to come back as about $1.06 in sale price just to break even, because closing costs skim the top. Run that against prepping and listing as-is, and the targeted renovation has to sell for $2,100,163 — $701 per square foot — merely to TIE. That's the ceiling of its own range. The full gut has to clear $2,476,666, or $826 per square foot — above anything I can find that has ever closed in this subdivision.
So my recommendation is Path B. Spend twenty-odd thousand making the house show like it deserves, price it against the acre comps, and keep the $225,000 in your pocket. I'd rather take a smaller listing that nets you more than talk you into a six-month construction project that, on these numbers, most likely doesn't pay for itself.
Path B in detail — the recommendation
What "prep and list as-is" actually means.
This is not "do nothing and hope." It's a deliberate, three-week push to make sure the house is judged on its land, its architecture and its frontage rather than on a dirty grout line. Roughly $12,000 to $25,000 in prep, plus about $4,000 of carry while we prep and market — most of it recoverable in the first offer.
| Item | Budget | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Deep clean + window washInside, outside, and every pane facing the fairway | $1,200 – $2,200 |
The view is the product. Dirty glass costs more than the cleaning does. |
| Handyman punch listFixtures, hardware, door adjustments, caulk, grout, minor drywall, bulbs | $2,500 – $5,000 |
Every small unfixed thing a buyer notices gets multiplied by ten in their head and shows up as a repair request later. |
| Targeted interior paintMain living areas and any dated or bold colors — not necessarily the whole house | $4,000 – $8,500 |
The single highest visual return per dollar in the building. This is the one line I'd never cut. |
| Landscape cleanupTree trimming, DG refresh, irrigation repair, dead plant replacement, entry tidy | $2,000 – $4,500 |
An acre that reads unkempt makes buyers price in work they haven't even scoped. An acre that reads cared-for reads as an estate. |
| StagingVignette staging of the key rooms plus the fairway-facing patio, 60-day term | $1,800 – $4,000 |
Mid-century floor plans are hard for buyers to read empty. We show them how to live in it. |
| Pre-listing inspectionRoof, HVAC, electrical, plumbing, pool equipment | $500 – $800 |
We find the problems before the buyer's inspector does, and we decide what to fix, disclose, or price for. This is how you avoid a renegotiation at day 25. |
| Photography, drone, floor plan, property site, pre-launch marketing | On me | Included in my listing fee, not billed to you. Twilight and aerial with the fairway in frame, and a floor plan that makes the guest house legible. |
| Total prep | $12,000 – $25,000 |
Three weeks, start to on-market. Add ~$4,000 carry → $16,000–$29,000 all in, which is the "money in" figure in the table above. |
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Why this is the right call on these numbers
You already own the two things this market pays the most for and neither one improves with a remodel: a full acre and golf frontage. 11424 N. Sundown proved it — an acre in "average" condition cleared $1,910,000 in fifty days without a renovation.
Prep costs you a little over 1% of the sale price and takes three weeks. Renovation costs you 12–30% of the sale price and takes six to ten months, during which the market can move against you — and right now inventory in 85260 is up 106% year over year. Speed is worth something in a softening market, and this path has the least capital at risk of any of the four.
When I'd change my mind
I'm not religious about this. Two things would move me toward Path C:
Path C in detail
If you renovate anyway — here is exactly where the money should go.
The math above says renovating probably doesn't pay at these spreads. But you asked for the full picture, the inspection could change my mind, and a real contractor bid could too — so here is the plan I'd run if we go this way. Nothing in it is speculative. Zonda's 2025 Cost vs. Value study is unambiguous: exterior and curb-appeal work returns more than interior work, every year. Garage door replacement returns 268%. A steel entry door returns 216%. Stone veneer returns 208%. A minor kitchen refresh returns 113%. A major kitchen gut does not return its cost. That ranking drives this plan.
| Scope | Budget | Why it earns its place |
|---|---|---|
| Curb appeal packageGarage door, entry door, exterior paint, stone accent, front landscape + lighting | $28,000 – $42,000 |
The four highest-ROI projects in the national study, and the thing that makes a 1966 Peterson read as architecturally significant instead of dated. Non-negotiable. |
| Kitchen — refresh tierStone counters, hardware, fixtures, appliance package, lighting, cabinet refinish. No layout change. | $50,000 – $75,000 |
Scottsdale's refresh tier. A full gut runs $125K–$200K here and doesn't return the difference on a 3,000 sf home. The one exception: if we can open the sightline to the fairway for under $40K, that specific wall is worth moving. |
| Primary bathFull rebuild in place — tile, vanity, frameless shower, soaking tub | $40,000 – $55,000 |
Baths return around 80% of cost nationally. We do the primary properly because it's a deal-breaker room, and we do the rest lightly. |
| Secondary baths (2)Fixtures, tile, vanity, lighting | $30,000 – $45,000 |
Objection removal, not value creation. Spend the minimum that makes them stop being a negative. |
| Flooring throughoutLarge-format porcelain, incl. demo and 1966 slab prep | $50,000 – $70,000 |
Consistent flooring across 2,998 sf is what makes a home photograph as renovated. Budget the slab prep — on a 1966 slab it's a $3K–$10K surprise otherwise. |
| Interior paintWalls, ceilings, trim, doors | $12,000 – $18,000 |
Highest visual impact per dollar in the building. |
| Pool completion + deckFinish, waterline tile, coping, deck refresh | $25,000 – $40,000 |
Already underway. See the note below on the diving well — it's worth a conversation before the finish goes on. |
| Guest house refreshPaint, flooring, fixtures, kitchenette + bath update | $42,000 – $60,000 |
The casita's value comes from being clean, functional and photographable — not from $250/sf finishes in a 554 sf outbuilding. This is the highest-leverage $50K on the property. |
| Golf-facing outdoor living zonePatio, shade, lighting, firepit — the fairway view only | $20,000 – $35,000 |
We do not landscape an acre. We treat three zones — entry, pool surround, fairway view — and leave the perimeter as clean desert. That's the difference between $30K and $120K. |
| Subtotal | $297,000 – $440,000 |
Before value engineering |
Swipe to see all columns on mobile. Costs are 2026 Phoenix/Scottsdale contractor ranges, not bids.
How we get to the $185K–$265K working budget
The table above is the full menu at published Scottsdale rates. The working budget assumes we take the low tier on flooring and secondary baths, keep the kitchen strictly in refresh territory, phase the outdoor zones, and use my trade relationships rather than retail-quoted pricing. I'll walk the property with you and build the actual line-item budget before you write a check to anyone.
Add a 15% contingency on a 1966 home, not the usual 10%. Original panels, cast-iron drains, possible asbestos in ceiling texture or flooring mastic, and Scottsdale permitting are all live risks at this vintage.
What I'd deliberately skip — and why
One thing to decide before the pool crew finishes
The existing pool is a 1966 diving pool. Deep-end diving wells are a known resale objection with family buyers — safety, insurance, and a lot of water nobody uses. Before the new finish goes on, it's worth a 20-minute conversation with your pool contractor about whether raising the deep end to a sport-bottom profile pencils. If it's a $6K–$10K adder now, it may be worth more than that at the negotiating table. If the finish is already in, we simply market the diving well as a feature to the right buyer and move on — but I'd rather you make that call knowingly.
Go to market
How we position it — because pricing is only half of getting top dollar.
There is no directly comparable sale for what you own. Nothing in the last six months has been a renovated, one-acre, golf-frontage home with a detached guest house and no HOA. That's a problem for an appraiser and an opportunity for a seller — and it means the story has to do work the comps can't.
Lead with the acre and the fairway, not the square footage.
At 2,998 sf you will lose a pure size comparison to the 4,000+ sf homes on the market. You win decisively on land, privacy, and frontage. Every headline, every first photo, every remark says one acre on the golf course, no HOA. We never let a buyer's first frame of reference be price per foot.
Name the architect. It is free differentiation.
The home is a documented 1966 John "Jack" R. Peterson design — central courtyard, contemporary Mediterranean lines, an actual pedigree. Scottsdale has a real and well-funded audience for mid-century architectural provenance. Renovated correctly, "architecturally significant" is a completely different listing from "1966 fixer," and it's the same house.
Underwrite the guest house as a separate asset.
554 sf, separate entrance. We market it three ways in one listing — multigenerational suite, executive home office, and short-term rental income — and we present the total under roof as 3,552 square feet. 11602 N. Sundown proved a casita pulls real dollars in this subdivision.
Sell "no HOA" hard. It is rarer than people think.
An acre with no HOA, RV parking, horse privileges, and room for a shop or additional structure is a specific and motivated buyer profile in Scottsdale — and that buyer pays a premium for the freedom, not just the house. Meanwhile a golf-frontage home in Scottsdale Country Club on an eighth of an acre has neighbors on both sides.
Price to be found, not to be negotiated.
With 3.6 months of supply and 75% of Scottsdale listings cutting price, the winning move is a defensible number on day one. The renovated golf home that priced right sold above list. The two that reached sat 150 and 185 days and cut anyway. My strategy is to list inside the comp range and let competition move it up — not to list above it and negotiate down. Days on market is the one asset you can never get back.
Build the appraisal file before we list, not after we're under contract.
Because there is no perfect comp, an appraiser will need to be led. I assemble the bracketing package in advance — acreage and renovation value from Sundown Drive, the golf premium from 11801 N. Sundown and Scottsdale Country Club, the casita contribution from 11602 — plus a full receipt file for the renovation. On a house like this, that packet is worth real money at the appraisal.
Market it like the asset it is.
Twilight and aerial photography with the fairway in frame, drone showing the full acre boundary, a floor plan that makes the guest house legible, and a dedicated property site. Pre-launch to the Scottsdale luxury agent network and my buyer list before it goes live, so we open with momentum rather than build it.
The net sheet
Every dollar that comes out between contract and closing.
Modeled at a $1,940,000 sale price — my target list price on Path B, the recommended path. Arizona is a genuinely cheap state to sell in, and I want you to see exactly why.
| Line item | Amount |
|---|---|
| Sale price | $1,940,000 |
| Listing brokerage fee — 2.5%Negotiable. See below. | ($48,500) |
| Buyer-broker compensation — 2.5%Now a negotiated concession, not an MLS offer | ($48,500) |
| Owner's title policySeller pays in AZ. Rate is regressive — only ~0.25% at this price. | ($4,906) |
| Escrow / settlement, seller half | ($1,600) |
| Property tax prorationAZ taxes run in arrears; $3,973/yr on this parcel | ($1,750) |
| Recording, wire, courier | ($200) |
| Arizona transfer taxConstitutionally prohibited since Prop 100 (2008) | $0 |
| HOA transfer & disclosure feesNo HOA on this property | $0 |
| Total cost of sale 5.44% | ($105,456) |
| Net proceeds at closingBefore mortgage payoff and before income tax | $1,834,544 |
| The $1,600,000 offer, for comparisonModeled with zero brokerage — the most generous possible reading | $1,592,156 |
| DifferenceWhat listing at target puts in your pocket over the offer | +$242,388 |
Two lines I want to be straight with you about
Buyer-broker compensation is now a negotiation, not a rule. Since the NAR settlement, compensation can't be advertised in the MLS. The buyer's agent agreement states their number, and the buyer requests it from you as a concession in the offer. Most Phoenix-metro sellers still offer it, because it protects the size of the buyer pool. On $2M+ Scottsdale sales the practiced range is 1.5%–2.5%. I've modeled 2.5%; every quarter point we save is about $4,850 in your pocket.
Watch the double-count. In 2026 Arizona practice, "buyer-broker compensation" and "seller concessions" are frequently the same dollars — one line in the contract covering rate buydown, closing costs, and the buyer's agent. Anyone showing you a 2.5% buyer-broker line and a separate 2% concession line is overstating your cost by roughly $40,000.
Where fee structure actually moves the needle
Net proceeds at $1,940,000, by structure:
| 2.5% list / 3.0% buyer-broker | $1,824,844 |
| 2.5% list / 2.5% buyer-broker | $1,834,544 |
| 2.5% list / 2.0% buyer-broker | $1,844,244 |
| 2.0% list / 2.0% buyer-broker | $1,853,944 |
Worth seeing plainly: the spread across every realistic fee structure is about $29,000. The spread between selling at $1,750,000 and selling at $2,000,000 is $237,000. Getting the price and the preparation right is worth roughly eight times more than squeezing the commission — which is exactly why I'd rather spend our time on the first two.
Net proceeds across the full price range
| Sale price | Cost of sale | % of price | Net at closing | Scenario |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $1,600,000 | $7,844 | 0.49% | $1,592,156 | Path A — the offer in hand (no brokerage modeled) |
| $1,750,000 | $95,614 | 5.46% | $1,654,386 | Path B — as-is, conservative |
| $1,875,000 | $102,089 | 5.44% | $1,772,911 | Path B — as-is, midpoint of range |
| $1,940,000 | $105,456 | 5.44% | $1,834,544 | Path B — as-is, target list price |
| $2,000,000 | $108,564 | 5.43% | $1,891,436 | Path B — as-is, strong result |
| $1,950,000 | $105,974 | 5.43% | $1,844,026 | Path C — targeted reno, low |
| $2,100,000 | $113,744 | 5.42% | $1,986,256 | Path C — targeted reno, high |
| $2,300,000 | $124,104 | 5.40% | $2,175,896 | Path D — full reno, low |
| $2,450,000 | $131,874 | 5.38% | $2,318,126 | Path D — full reno, top of market |
Assumes 2.5% listing / 2.5% buyer-broker except where noted. Before mortgage payoff and income tax.
Talk to your CPA before you start — not after you close
Four tax items that could move six figures on this deal.
I'm a real estate broker, not a CPA or an attorney, and none of this is tax advice. But these four issues come up on every renovate-and-sell and they're much cheaper to handle before the work starts.
1. Dealer vs. investor — the big one
The IRS weighs holding period, how often you do this, and the extent of improvements. Substantial improvements immediately before a sale point toward dealer status; minor work points toward investor. Dealer status means ordinary income rates instead of capital gains, self-employment tax on top, and no 1031 eligibility. On a $600K gain that swing is well over $100,000. Get a CPA opinion and set up your documentation before the renovation starts.
2. Your holding period is already long-term
You closed February 21, 2024 — about 2½ years. Assuming investor treatment holds, federal long-term rates are 0/15/20%, plus the 3.8% net investment income tax above $200K single / $250K joint. Arizona is the pleasant surprise: a flat 2.5% with a 25% long-term subtraction, so an effective 1.875%. As of tax year 2026, SB 1331 removed the old acquisition-date restriction, so it applies regardless of when you bought.
3. If you're rolling into another deal, set up the 1031 first
45 days to identify, 180 days to close — or your tax return due date, whichever comes first, which quietly compresses a Q4 closing unless you extend. The qualified intermediary has to be engaged before closing; once proceeds touch your account the exchange is dead and can't be fixed. And note: I can't be your intermediary, and neither can anyone who's worked for you in that capacity in the last two years.
4. Keep every single invoice
Capital improvements add to your basis and directly reduce taxable gain — the entire renovation, essentially. Selling expenses (commissions, title, escrow, concessions) reduce the amount realized. If the property or the casita was ever rented, ask specifically about depreciation recapture: it's taxed up to 25% and it applies whether or not you actually claimed the depreciation.
If we go
What the next ninety days look like.
This is Path B — prep and list. It is deliberately short, because in a market with 106% more inventory than last year, time on the sidelines is a cost.
| When | What happens | Who |
|---|---|---|
| Days 1–3 | Walk the property together. Pre-listing inspection ordered — roof, HVAC, electrical, plumbing, pool equipment — so we're deciding on facts, not guesses. Preliminary title pulled to confirm no golf-course easements or recorded frontage obligations. | You + me |
| Days 3–7 | Full ARMLS comp pull and final CMA. Inspection results in hand, we decide what to fix, what to disclose, and what to price for. This is the checkpoint where I'd revisit Path C if the report comes back rough. | Me |
| Days 5–10 | CPA conversation on dealer/investor classification and 1031 posture — worth having even on a straight sale. Pool finish completed; diving-well decision made before it goes on. | You + CPA |
| Week 2–3 | Prep executed: punch list, targeted paint, landscape cleanup, deep clean. Staging installed. | Me + trades |
| Week 3 | Photography, twilight, drone, floor plan, property site. Pre-launch to the Scottsdale luxury agent network and my buyer list. Then live. | Me |
| Days 25–60 | Marketing window. Appraisal bracketing packet assembled in parallel, so it's ready the day we're under contract rather than scrambled together after. | Me |
| +30 days | Under contract, appraisal packet delivered, close. | All of us |
Renovating instead? Add roughly five months up front for Path C, or nine to ten for Path D — contractor bids, permits, build, then the same three-week marketing push at the end. The rest of the process is identical; there's just a construction project in front of it, and five to ten more months of market risk.
Full transparency
What I still need to verify — and what I'd be guessing at.
I'd rather hand you a document with its weak points labeled than one that reads as more certain than it is. Here's where this analysis is soft.
Before we act on any of this
Where my confidence is genuinely high
Jorge — one walk-through and we'll know.
Most of what's still uncertain here gets resolved in about ninety minutes on site: the real condition of the roof and mechanicals, what the casita actually needs, and whether anything in the inspection changes the recommendation. I'll bring the full MLS comp set so you can see every one of these sales yourself.
On the offer in hand — take your time with it. It nets you roughly $180,000 less than the middle of what this property should bring, and about $310,000 less than a comparable acre closed for in May. If there's a reason speed and certainty are worth that to you, that's your call to make and I'll help you make it cleanly. But you should make it knowing the number.
James Burbank
Sold by Burbank · Scottsdale, Arizona
This analysis was built specifically for 11816 N. Hayden Road. Nothing in it is boilerplate, and none of it obligates you to list with me. If it's useful and you take it somewhere else, that's genuinely fine — I'd just rather you make this decision with real numbers in front of you.
Comparable sales compiled August 19, 2026 from public records and syndicated listing sources including Redfin, Homes.com, Zillow and Trulia; all require ARMLS verification before use in a listing agreement or appraisal packet. Renovation costs are published 2026 Phoenix-metro contractor ranges, not bids. Closing-cost figures reflect Arizona filed title rate schedules and the Maricopa County Recorder fee schedule effective July 1, 2019. Net-proceeds figures are estimates before mortgage payoff, income tax, and any negotiated repairs or concessions, and are not a guarantee of sale price or net result. Tax information is general and is not tax or legal advice — consult a licensed CPA or attorney regarding your specific circumstances. Nothing herein constitutes an appraisal.
James BurbankLicense ID:SA681164000- +1(623) 398-9095 james@soldbyburbank.com