James BurbankLicense ID:SA681164000- +1(623) 398-9095 james@soldbyburbank.com
18068 W Narramore Rd, Goodyear, AZ 85338
Prepared for Dan Cherry · September 14, 2026 · 4 bed / 3 bath · 3,475 sq ft · single story · built 2007 · 3-car garage · golf-course lot · The Fairways at Estrella (gated)
The bottom line
Four closed sales of 3,400–3,500 sq ft homes in Estrella (March–August 2026), eight homes renting in Estrella right now, and your own 2025 listing history. Just the numbers.
1. What it would sell for
Closed price per square foot, every 3,400–3,500 sq ft sale in Estrella since March. Your home is highlighted at our estimate.
How we landed on $203 / sq ft
Estrella splits into two tiers at this size. Buckhorn Dr ($186/sf) is your closest comp: same gated Fairways neighborhood, same vintage, same footprint, closed three weeks ago. It has a pool and brand-new HVAC, but it's a two-story on an interior lot. Your single-level plan and golf-course frontage are worth more to most Estrella buyers than a pool is, which is why you land above it. Hubbard Dr ($161/sf) is a newer two-story with no pool outside the gates; it sat 97 days and paid 4% in buyer credits — that's the floor.
The two $280+/sf sales are a different product: 7–10 years newer, private pools and spas, and in Wind Drift's case over $425,000 in documented upgrades. Buyers at $950K+ paid for turnkey resort backyards, not square footage. Without a pool, your home competes in the $650K–$750K tier, not that one.
The strongest evidence is your own 2025 test. Listed March 10, 2025 at $779,900, reduced to $749,999 on March 31, off market May 2 with no sale. The market told you $750K was too high eighteen months ago, and the Fairways comp that has closed since then came in at $639K. $705K (about $203/sf) is where a well-presented listing should clear today; the public-record auto-estimate ($763K) is above what the 2025 test supports.
| Address | Details | Sold | Sq Ft | $/SF | Seller paid* | vs. orig. list | Days | Closed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17646 W Hubbard Dr | Standard 5/4 · 2 story · 2019 · no pool · Estrella Mtn Ranch | $550,000 | 3,420 | $160.81 | 4% (~$22,000) | −5.0% | 97 | Apr 1 |
| 18140 W Buckhorn Dr | Standard 5/3.5 · 2 story · 2006 · pool · Fairways gated | $639,000 | 3,432 | $186.19 | 3.5% (~$22,400) | −1.7% | 48 | Aug 28 |
| 18123 W Desert Sage Dr | Premium 4/2.5 · 1 story · 2014 · pool/spa · golf lot · gated · cash | $967,575 | 3,428 | $282.26 | $0 | −19.4% | 15 | Mar 27 |
| 18115 W Wind Drift Dr | Premium 4/3.5 · 1 story · 2017 · pool · $425K upgrades · gated | $999,000 | 3,464 | $288.39 | $5,500 | −4.8% | 27 | Apr 30 |
| 18068 W Narramore Rd | You 4/3 · 1 story · 2007 · golf lot · no pool · Fairways gated | $705,000 est. | 3,475 | $203 | — | — | — | — |
*Seller-paid buyer concessions (closing-cost credits, rate buydowns). All four sales closed below original asking; average 7.7% below. Source: ARMLS closed sales, Estrella, 85338.
2. What it would rent for
Every single-family home and townhome listed for rent in Estrella as of September 14, 2026, plus what your own listing did last year.
Your 2025 rental listing is the best comp there is
| Jun 2, 2025 — listed for rent | $3,195 |
| Jun 16, 2025 — reduced | $2,795 |
| Aug 5, 2025 — reduced | $2,590 |
| Sep 9, 2025 — off market | ≈ $2,590 (leased) |
Fourteen weeks and two price cuts to find a tenant. $0.75/sf is right in line with what other 2,900+ sq ft Estrella homes are asking today (Acacia Ct: $0.98/sf at 2,950 sq ft). Big homes rent at a lower rate per foot than small ones — the tenant pool for $3,000+ rent is thin.
Rent at a glance
| Realistic rent today | $2,600 – $2,900 / mo |
| Used in the math below | $2,600 / mo |
| Annual gross | $31,200 |
| Rent-to-value (annual ÷ value) | 4.4% |
| Cap rate after expenses (est.) | 2.0% |
| Public-record rent auto-estimate | $3,709 (your 2025 listing proved it's high) |
| Active rental | Community | Bd/Ba | Sq Ft | Asking | $/SF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10201 S Hopi Ln | Estrella Parcel 51 | 3/2 | 2,201 | $1,825 | $0.83 |
| 17744 W Cassia Way | Estrella Parcel 7.1 | 4/3 | 2,468 | $2,479 | $1.00 |
| 13857 S 177th Ave | Estrella Parcel 7.1 | 4/3 | 2,474 | $2,595 | $1.05 |
| 11477 S Coolwater Dr | Estrella Parcel 55 | 4/2 | 2,256 | $2,800 | $1.24 |
| 17584 W Acacia Ct | Estrella Mtn Ranch 195 | 4/3 | 2,950 | $2,895 | $0.98 |
| 17977 W Hubbard Dr | Estrella | 4/2 | 2,195 | $3,400 | $1.55 |
| 17775 W Sunward Dr | Rosewood Golf Villas (new) | 3/3 | 2,051 | $4,100 | $2.00 |
| 12358 S 178th Ave (TH) | Rosewood Golf Villas (new) | 3/3 | 2,191 | $4,500 | $2.05 |
| 18068 W Narramore Rd | The Fairways · golf lot | 4/3 | 3,475 | $2,600–2,900 est. | $0.75–0.83 |
The Rosewood Golf Villas at $4,100–$4,500 are brand-new luxury builds with a different tenant; they set the ceiling for Estrella, not a comp for a 2007 home. Source: ARMLS active residential leases, 85338.
3. Where you stand vs. what you paid
You bought all-cash for $725,000 on November 21, 2022, and county records show no loan since. Every dollar of value is your equity — which is exactly why the return on it matters.
Cash in hand if you sold today
| Sale price (est.) | $705,000 |
| Listing fee — SoldByBurbank 1.5% flat | − $10,575 |
| Buyer's agent compensation | Negotiable — $0 to __ |
| Title, escrow, HOA transfer & misc. (~1%) | − $7,000 |
| Buyer concession allowance (2%)* | − $14,100 |
| Loan payoff | $0 — free & clear |
| Net proceeds (est.) | ≈ $673,300 |
*Both standard-tier comps gave 3.5–4% in seller-paid credits; 2% is a planning number. Buyer-agent compensation is negotiated deal-by-deal now; offering 2% would subtract another $14,100.
Versus your 2022 purchase
| Purchase price, Nov 2022 | $725,000 |
| Estimated value today | $705,000 |
| Change in value | − $20,000 (−2.8%) |
| Net proceeds after selling costs | $673,300 |
| Net vs. purchase price | ≈ − $51,700 |
Bought at the late-2022 peak for this tier; the 2007 sale was $695,000, so the home has moved about 1.5% total in 19 years. The silver lining: on an investment property, a loss on sale is generally a deductible capital loss that can offset other gains — worth a conversation with your CPA before deciding either way.
4. Keep renting it, or sell?
Same $673,000 of your money, two places it can sit for the next 12 months.
Option A — Hold & rent for 12 months
| Gross rent ($2,600 × 12) | $31,200 |
| Vacancy (5%) | − $1,560 |
| Property tax (2025 actual) | − $6,108 |
| Insurance (est.) | − $1,800 |
| HOA — Estrella + Fairways gate (est. $200/mo) | − $2,400 |
| Maintenance & reserves (8%) | − $2,496 |
| Property management (8%) | − $2,496 |
| Mortgage | $0 |
| Cash flow | ≈ $14,340 / yr |
| + Appreciation if Estrella rises 2% | + $14,100 |
| Total 12-month gain | ≈ $28,440 |
Self-managing adds back ~$2,500 (3.9% yield). No appreciation = 2.1% total.
Option B — Sell, redeploy the cash
| Net proceeds | $673,300 |
| Parked in T-bills / money market at ~4.25% | + $28,600 / yr |
| Tenant turnover, HOA compliance, 2007 systems | None |
| Exposure to the $650–750K Estrella tier | None |
| Taxes on sale | Likely a capital loss — see note |
Selling at a loss on an investment property typically produces a deductible capital loss rather than a tax bill (recapture on any depreciation you've claimed still applies). A 1031 exchange isn't needed to defer gain when there is no gain; the $673K could go into a 6–7% cap asset — roughly $40–47K/yr of income — without the roof, HVAC and water heater of a 2007 home on your books. Confirm with your CPA.
5. Has your pocket already peaked?
What the four 2026 sales and your own 2025 listing say about the Estrella large-home market.
Assumptions & sources. Subject specs and 2025 listing history from ARMLS / public record (MLS 6781492 sale listing; MLS 6874532 rental listing). Purchase history from Maricopa County Recorder (Doc 20220849744; no loan of record). Closed comps: ARMLS, Estrella 85338, 3,400–3,500 sq ft, closed 3/27/2026–8/28/2026. Rental comps: ARMLS active residential leases as of 9/14/2026. Current rent, insurance and HOA are estimates. This is a broker price opinion, not an appraisal, and not tax or legal advice.
James Burbank · SoldByBurbank · eXp Realty · 16165 N 83rd Ave Suite 200, Peoria, AZ 85382 · 623-398-9095