James BurbankLicense ID:SA681164000- +1(623) 398-9095 james@soldbyburbank.com
2340 S 161st Dr, Goodyear, AZ 85338
Prepared for Boyd Becker · September 14, 2026 · 3 bed / 3 bath · 1,845 sq ft · single story · built 2004 · Sarival Village
The bottom line
Nine closed sales within about a mile (March–July 2026) and four homes renting right now in your immediate area. No Zestimate, no guessing.
1. What it would sell for
Closed price per square foot, nine nearest sales. Your home is highlighted at our estimate.
How we landed on $209 / sq ft
Only two of the nine sales are resale homes like yours, and they bracket you neatly. Yavapai ($186/sf) is a two-story with a leased solar system that sat 119 days and gave $10,950 in concessions — your single-story, no-solar-lease home should beat it. Hadley ($218/sf) has a pool, a 2017 kitchen remodel, and new HVAC, roof, and electrical — your home would need those upgrades to match it. A 2004 single-story in average, well-kept condition lands in the middle: about $209/sf, or $385,000.
The seven new-construction sales look like $230–$247/sf, but that's before the builder incentives. Net of concessions they closed at $217–$233/sf, and buyers are paying that for a brand-new home with a warranty. A 22-year-old resale typically trades 8–10% under new-build net pricing in the same pocket — which again points to roughly $205–$212/sf. The public-record auto-estimate ($382K) lands in the same place.
| Address | Type | Sold | Sq Ft | $/SF | Seller paid* | Net $/SF | vs. orig. list | Days | Closed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15839 W Yavapai St | Resale 3/2.5 · 2 story · 2002 | $365,000 | 1,965 | $185.75 | $10,950 | $180.18 | −8.7% | 119 | May 1 |
| 15814 W Vogel Ave | New 4/3 · 1 story · 2025 | $434,995 | 1,870 | $232.62 | $26,100 | $218.66 | −8.0% | 253 | Mar 26 |
| 16248 W Hadley St | Resale 5/2.5 · 2 story · pool · 1997 | $435,000 | 1,993 | $218.26 | $9,788 | $213.35 | −3.3% | 37 | Mar 20 |
| 15826 W Vogel Ave | New 4/3 · 1 story · 2025 | $445,000 | 1,870 | $237.97 | $11,284 | $231.93 | −7.7% | 178 | Mar 23 |
| 15602 W Miami St | New 4/3 · 1 story · 2026 | $447,790 | 1,946 | $230.11 | $10,000 | $224.97 | −0.4% | 7 | May 28 |
| 15584 W Miami St | New 5/3 · 1 story · 2026 | $454,000 | 1,968 | $230.69 | $8,316 | $226.47 | −3.1% | 10 | Jul 30 |
| 3133 S 156th Dr | New 5/3 · 1 story · 2026 | $454,390 | 1,968 | $230.89 | $27,263 | $217.04 | −0.9% | 13 | Jul 8 |
| 3116 S 156th Ave | New 4/3 · 1 story · 2026 | $454,490 | 1,946 | $233.55 | $8,827 | $229.01 | −6.5% | 84 | May 15 |
| 15874 W Vogel Ave | New 3/2 · 1 story · 2026 | $461,995 | 1,870 | $247.06 | $26,340 | $232.97 | +0.4% | 67 | Jun 30 |
| 2340 S 161st Dr | You 3/3 · 1 story · 2004 | $385,000 est. | 1,845 | $209 | — | — | — | — | — |
*Seller-paid buyer concessions (closing-cost credits, rate buydowns). Nine-sale average: $15,430 and 4.3% below original asking price. Source: ARMLS closed sales, 85338.
2. What it would rent for
Every single-family home currently listed for rent in your pocket, as of September 14, 2026.
Reading the rent comps
The three resale rentals ask $1,795–$1,995 ($1.06–$1.18/sf). The closest match to your home — Lilac St, a 3/3 with 1,862 sq ft — is asking $1,975 after a price cut, which tells you tenants are not paying above $2,000 for a 20-year-old home right now. At $1.10/sf your 1,845 sq ft supports about $2,025/mo, with $1,950–$2,150 the realistic band. The $2,500 Avion listing is a brand-new home and sets the ceiling, not your price.
Rent at a glance
| Gross rent (est.) | $2,025 / mo |
| Annual gross | $24,300 |
| Rent-to-value (annual ÷ value) | 6.3% |
| Cap rate after expenses (est.) | 3.9% |
| Public-record rent auto-estimate | $2,355 (high vs. live comps) |
3. How much equity you're sitting on
Based on your February 2006 purchase from D.R. Horton ($310,000 with a $201,500 loan) and today's estimated value.
Equity position
| Estimated market value | $385,000 |
| Est. remaining loan balance* | − $105,800 |
| Estimated equity | $279,200 |
*Assumes the original $201,500 30-year loan at 6.25% was never refinanced or paid ahead (Feb 2006 → Sep 2026, 247 payments). If you refinanced or own it free and clear, plug in your actual balance — every other number shifts dollar-for-dollar. Gain over 2006 purchase price: ≈ $75,000 (+24%).
Cash in hand if you sold today
| Sale price | $385,000 |
| Listing fee — SoldByBurbank 1.5% flat | − $5,775 |
| Buyer's agent compensation | Negotiable — $0 to __ |
| Title, escrow, HOA transfer & misc. (~1%) | − $3,800 |
| Buyer concession allowance (2%)** | − $7,700 |
| Loan payoff (est.) | − $105,800 |
| Net proceeds (est.) | ≈ $261,900 |
**Every resale comp in this set gave 2.25–3% in seller-paid concessions; 2% is a realistic planning number, not a guarantee you'll pay it. Buyer-agent compensation is now negotiated deal-by-deal; if you choose to offer 2%, subtract another $7,700.
4. Rent it another year, or sell now?
Same $262,000 of your money, two places it can sit for the next 12 months.
Option A — Hold & rent for 12 months
| Gross rent ($2,025 × 12) | $24,300 |
| Vacancy (5%) | − $1,215 |
| Property tax (2025 actual) | − $1,952 |
| Insurance (est.) | − $1,300 |
| HOA (est. $60/mo) | − $720 |
| Maintenance & reserves (8%) | − $1,944 |
| Property management (8%) | − $1,944 |
| Mortgage P&I ($1,241 × 12, est.) | − $14,888 |
| Cash flow | ≈ $340 / yr |
| + Principal paid down by tenant | + $8,520 |
| + Appreciation if pocket rises 2% | + $7,700 |
| Total 12-month gain | ≈ $16,560 |
…if prices rise 2%. If prices stay flat (see section 5), the gain is ≈ $8,860, or 3.4%. Self-managing adds back ~$1,944.
Option B — Sell now, redeploy the cash
| Net proceeds | $261,900 |
| Parked in T-bills / money market at ~4.25% | + $11,130 / yr |
| Landlord hours, vacancy risk, repair calls | None |
| Exposure to builder discounting in 85338 | None |
| Taxes on sale | Cap gains or 1031 — see note |
The primary-residence exclusion likely no longer applies (not your primary home 2 of the last 5 years), so a straight sale is a long-term capital gain on ~$75K plus depreciation recapture — confirm with your CPA. A 1031 exchange into a higher-yield asset (e.g., a 6–7% cap property in a growth market) turns ~$262K into $15–18K/yr of income without the 2004-vintage repair bill coming due (roof, HVAC, water heater are all 22 years old).
5. Has your pocket already peaked?
Three signals from the nine closed sales, March–July 2026.
Assumptions & sources. Subject specs from Maricopa County Assessor / public record (1,845 sf, built 2004, 5,719 sf lot, 2025 taxes $1,952). Purchase history from Maricopa County Recorder (Doc 20060238595). Closed comps: ARMLS, 85338, closed 3/20/2026–7/30/2026. Rental comps: ARMLS active residential leases as of 9/14/2026. Loan balance is an estimate assuming the original loan was never refinanced. Insurance and HOA are estimates. This is a broker price opinion, not an appraisal, and not tax or legal advice — consult your CPA on Section 121 / 1031 treatment.
James Burbank · SoldByBurbank · eXp Realty · 16165 N 83rd Ave Suite 200, Peoria, AZ 85382 · 623-398-9095